FiveThirtyEight Politics

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. They also preview primary election day in one of the most pivotal states this fall: Pennsylvania. And they mark Earth Day with an installment of "Guess What Americans Think," on the topic of climate change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration. This is all with the goal of impaneling an unbiased jury. It’s one of the most important parts of the process and also gets at the heart of a lot of what we talk about on the 538 Politics podcast. Based on a person’s own biography and demography, how do they feel about the former president and his criminal prosecution? In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with law professors Jessica Roth and Valerie Hans about the challenges of jury selection and what lack of bias we can expect from jurors in such a unique trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. They also discuss how Republicans are positioning themselves on Arizona's unpopular 1864-era abortion ban and debate whether the latest campaign fundraising data actually says anything about the competitiveness of the presidential candidates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with a roundtable of experts on religion and society about why the decline has happened and what it portends for American communities, networks and politics. Joining the podcast are Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute; Ryan Burge, Professor of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University and a Baptist Pastor; and Daniel Cox, Director of the Survey Center on American Life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok, maintain the status quo or even consider banning social media altogether. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of polling.” -- Sponsor Message: Secure your privacy with Surfshark! Enter coupon code FIVE38 for an extra 3 months free at https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court regarding in vitro fertilization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a "good or bad use of polling?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the upcoming South Carolina primary race, and ask whether a recent poll of political scientists intending to create a ranking of American presidents was a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices